On occasions when the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.
That is when enormous inflatables are launched across the border, with containers of contraband goods swinging beneath.
Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has compelled Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into shutdown 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.
On one occasion, the airspace was shut down entirely for a prolonged 11 hours.
However, the government are convinced they are facing something much more aggressive than simple smugglers.
They assert the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an act of covert aggression by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.
State of Alert
The Lithuanian administration has announced an official alert.
While balloons have been employed by smugglers before, their numbers increased dramatically this October.
"Of course it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus exploits organised crime to have an effect on adjacent states," a senior official stated.
The official argued the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If the goal was to make a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.
Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.
"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."
Nightly Patrols
Now, nightly, border units patrol in the frontier area.
The balloons are most common during the night.
Units set up mobile checkpoints on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.
The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.
Consequently, the government has offered a substantial reward to any firm that can develop how to intercept them.
Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.
Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also act as a preventive measure.
Political Objectives
The frontier line is now defined by a high security barrier, with security wire and concrete blocks.
This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as hostile.
Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".
He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to previous incidents.
In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a manufactured emergency.
"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That means it benefits them."
The suspicion is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting sanctions.
"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.
The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.
Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's war of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.
Consequences for Travel
Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.
"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.
Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.
"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.
"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.
"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."
Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.
"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."
