From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”