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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a firm approach on Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious ramifications" in August in case Vladimir Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, Trump eventually imposed major sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action significantly hindered the Russian leader's capacity to finance his military invasion in the region.

But, through his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would essentially benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although ringing statements that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative actually weaken that very independence. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, like handing Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will please the leader. However, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a damaged region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to weaken it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his increasing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although maintaining in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would require the nation to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with land that its troops have been failed to occupy in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this concession would make Ukraine's military defenses severely weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified military defenses that constitute a essential barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open way to Kyiv if he later opt to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would make renewed fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would require the nation to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their current large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's initiative places no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, the proposal states: "Every radical doctrine and practices must be opposed and forbidden." As if to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his regime by holding elections in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied areas in the region to Ukrainian control – why should we trust this commitment now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. Although the plan promises a "decisive unified defense action" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prevent Nato members from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thus preventing the reassurance force, likely headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his reduced military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

Another parallel deal reportedly would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and sustained military assault" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an assault endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. Yet in contrast to a strong national defense – the nation's most reliable protection against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, including Trump, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not