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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.