This diplomatic language and optics from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India projected a robust bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the leaders shared a car journey, echoing a known diplomatic style. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and labeled the India-Russia bond as a "beacon", built on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth visit to India over his 25-year tenure and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.
A Gap Between Pageantry and Substance
However, a clear divide persists between the ceremony and the substance of this relationship. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact purchasing less Russian oil in the face of international tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed a series of memorandums of understanding in areas like migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and academic collaboration. However, expected announcements on major military deals failed to come to pass. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia since the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in shipments of equipment and components as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.
A Relationship With Diminished Geopolitical Heft
This all points to that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer holds the same geopolitical clout it previously possessed. During the Cold War, India enjoyed preferential barter arrangements and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its allies. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both nations have attempted to maintain a appearance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the truth is that their engagement does not have the same significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened relations with the Western world.
Diversification and Inherent Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to cut its crucial relationship with Moscow. But, as Western coercion increases on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to broaden the partnership into other areas. During Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation programme extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, equitable and long-lasting". This involves improving market access for Indian products to rectify a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two spans several key strategic sectors – from space and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Ideological Affinity and Seen Dependability
At an ideological plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia persists, especially among older cohorts of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal support during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of sympathy for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During recent tensions between India and the US, where American officials have made sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.
This challenge, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive joint statement released during Putin's visit made no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically described the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the war have been limited.
Navigating the Circle: India's Foreign Policy Balancing Act
This situation highlights the inherent complexities in India's international stance. The nation is poised to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, after a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as moves are being made to strengthen people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.
How will India resolve this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that current peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a end of hostilities and the elimination of a major irritant in its ties with the West. But, even if a peace deal is reached, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly persist in Western capitals.
