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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.